It has now become apparent the spike in cases and certainly in deaths in the border states of Arizona, California and Texas closely parallel the rise in cases in Mexico. In addition, spikes in cases and deaths in Florida closely mimic the curves displayed for Brazil.
The Brazilian population in Florida counts more than 300,000, one of the largest Brazilian communities in the United States. And if you think the travel ban prevents Brazilians from entering the U.S., this document details the many exceptions to the rule.
It is generally accepted that it takes approximately five days to get infected with coronavirus and for those who tragically succumb to the illness, which is a tiny percentage of all cases, it takes anywhere from 10 to 18 days to die. The peak cases in Mexico occurred in late July (at this point people may have had it for more than 10 days) and the peak of deaths in the U.S. border states of Arizona, California and Texas occurred in early August.
Undoubtedly, there are delays in reporting due to slow data collection in Brazil and Mexico. In the United States, there are also delays in reporting cases and deaths.
People who cross the border or fly in from Brazil seeking medical attention are most likely already ill and desperate to receive premium U.S. healthcare at our fine hospitals.
When the cases were at a peak in Brazil and Mexico, you can assume those infected had been sick for at least several days or more than a week. If you get tested in Brazil or Mexico and the result is positive, it’s very likely you’ve had COVID-19 for a while. The chances that the very day you get tested align with the exact day you contract the virus are slim.
Now back to the numbers … the peaks of cases in Brazil and Mexico occurred the third week of July, and the peak deaths occurred in early August in Arizona, California and Texas. The curves in these states precisely mirror the curves in Brazil and Mexico, accounting for the lag between cases and deaths. This is not a coincidence, my friends. This is a very real example of The Politics of Duh.
Some people will say the rise in cases and deaths in these border states is due to the fact these states presumably opened up early – in late April and early May. But this isn’t true. Following the trajectory of infection and subsequent deaths, the rise would’ve appeared much sooner than the end of July.
Panic is unwarranted. Recently, cases have started dropping in both Brazil and Mexico, and because the situation is so closely tied to our border states, we’ve also seen significant drops in cases and deaths throughout Arizona, California, Florida and Texas as well.
There is an excellent short book by former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson in which he explains in great detail why lockdowns are ineffective against preventing the spread of COVID-19. Mr. Berenson provides well-researched scientific reasons based on data but he leaves out the 800-pound gorilla in the room: the politics of the coronavirus.
In January 2020, the unemployment rate stood at its lowest number in more than half a century. It would’ve been an extremely difficult feat to win an election against the President who created such a historically strong economy; there’s simply no arguing with numbers.
Let’s admit it, most people are concerned about the economy over almost anything else. Remember that wonderful saying, “It’s the economy stupid” coined in 1992 by Democratic Strategist James Carville? Well, it really is. Or it really was because coronavirus was able to infect and sicken one of the healthiest U.S. economies in our nation’s history.
There’s no doubt ill-advised lockdowns destroyed the economy and created unprecedented levels of unemployment, driving national discontent to soaring heights. This new concern about rising cases and a small amount of rising deaths in border states is another attempt to keep the economy locked down until the elections. There are basically four things Democratic governors can do to defeat Donald Trump in November:
- Keep the economy locked down to depress GDP numbers, making unemployment numbers artificially high in their states.
- Block schools from re-opening in September, which would inhibit parents from easily working, whether it’s at home or in the office.
- Create a situation where unemployment benefits are higher than the salaries of many who lost their jobs thereby providing no incentive for these unemployed workers to return to work.
- Encourage mail-in ballots due to the coronavirus, which can be replete with voter fraud and thus fraudulently can swing the election in the Democrats’ favor.
So far the governors of Arizona, Florida and Texas have resisted locking down their states again although California Governor Gavin Newsom has locked down most of his state. Governor Newsom’s actions to successfully shut down businesses once again, thwarting any growth from the semi-recovering economy, is just one more way Democratic politicians are using coronavirus as an effective strategy to defeat President Trump in November.
In his book, Mr. Berenson avoided any discussion about the politics of the coronavirus, which I understand, (keep to the facts) but in this particular situation, a no-politics treatise on the topic of COVID-19 is like corona without the virus – it misses the point. If anything has been proven by this entire coronavirus fiasco, it’s that in the real world, no matter how many times you present the scientific evidence, politics trumps science every time.
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